Gold has officially shattered expectations, surging past $3,100 per ounce for the first time in history. The precious metal hit a high of $3,128.06 in spot trading Monday, continuing a steep climb that has seen gold gain 18% year-to-date. Investors and analysts alike are taking notice, as the rally marks the strongest quarterly performance since 1986.
But what’s behind gold’s record run — and, most importantly, can it last?
Uncertainty Pushes Investors to Safety
At the heart of the surge is a growing sense of global unease. With new auto tariffs from the U.S. set to take effect April 2, trade tensions have been reignited. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies are fueling fears of another international trade standoff, and investors are once again flocking to gold—the world’s go-to safe-haven asset.
“Markets are pricing in risk, not just from trade but from what could follow,” said Ava Greene, a senior commodities analyst. “When inflation creeps up and growth slows down, stagflation becomes a real concern. That’s when gold becomes very attractive.”
Central Banks Bulk Up Their Gold Reserves
Another major factor driving demand is central bank buying. Governments around the world have ramped up their gold purchases, doubling their acquisitions compared to earlier decades. Much of this is a response to recent geopolitical conflicts, which saw some countries’ foreign assets frozen or seized.
Now, many central banks are turning to gold to diversify and protect their reserves. “You can’t sanction gold,” Greene added. “It’s not tied to any single country’s financial system.”
Record Highs and Market Milestones
Monday’s jump wasn’t just symbolic—it smashed through several key thresholds. Spot gold broke above $3,000 earlier this month and has only gained steam since. Gold futures in New York also soared, hitting $3,160.70.
According to Mining.com, this marks the metal’s largest quarterly increase in nearly 40 years. The momentum follows a 27% price increase in 2024, suggesting that this rally isn’t just a flash in the pan.
Wall Street Adjusts Its Forecasts
The run-up has forced top analysts to adjust their outlooks. Goldman Sachs now predicts gold could reach $3,300 by the end of 2025, with more extreme scenarios putting the price as high as $4,500. Bank of America, meanwhile, expects gold to climb to $3,350 by 2026.
“There’s no shortage of catalysts right now,” said David Lang, an investment strategist quoted in Forbes. “From unrest in the Middle East to ongoing inflation and interest rate uncertainty, it’s a perfect storm for gold bulls.”
Could a Correction Be Coming?
Still, not everyone is convinced the rally will last. Some warn that gold’s recent gains may be overextended, driven more by fear than fundamentals. If trade tensions ease or economic data surprises to the upside, gold could face a sharp pullback.
“Markets tend to overreact in both directions,” said Lang. “When sentiment cools, we might see gold settle back below $3,000 before making its next move.”
Where Does Gold Go From Here?
For now, gold continues to glitter in a shaky world. As inflation lingers, central banks double down, and geopolitical flashpoints flare up, investors are placing big bets on the metal’s staying power.
Whether gold keeps climbing or takes a breather, one thing is clear: in times of uncertainty, it remains the asset to watch.
